FIBER-TO-THE-HOME

THE THIRD NETWORK

FTTP/FTTH 2004/2005

(176 Pages / 133 Color Illustrations)

Render Vanderslice & Associates: December 2004

Table Of Contents

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I. Introduction and Methodology

A. First, a Word About the Language and Style of the Report

B. Emphasis and Scope of the Report

C. The Title of the Report

D. Survey Methodology

1. Background Information

2. Census Study of FTTH Projects

3. Random Sample: ILEC and Municipal Market Focus

II. Laying the Foundation – The Updated “Overview”

A. What is Broadband?

B. How Much Broadband Will Be Enough?

C. Broadband and Convergence

1. Stage-1 Convergence

2. Stage-2 Convergence

D. Broadband and High Definition Video TV

E. Broadband – The Future Vision

1. Entertainment

2. Work/Telecommuting

3. Health/Digital Medicine

4. Community/Social Interaction

5. Commerce

6. Security

7. Education

F. The Broadband Contenders

1. High Speed DSL/Fiber-to-the-Curb/Fiber-to-the-Node

2. Cable Modems/HFC Systems (Last Segment Over Coax)

3. Deep HFC Systems

4. BPL (Broadband Over Power Lines)

5. Wireless

6. Geosynchronous Satellite

7. Low Orbit Satellites

8. Free Space Optics

G. Broadband Business Case Cost Comparisons

III. Fiber To The Home Basics

A. FTTH History

B. Basics of the Technology

C. FTTH Technology Options

1. FTTH Architectures

2. FTTH Protocols

D. FTTH Data Capacity by Architectures

E. Bandwidth Provisioning

F. System Bandwidth Versus Internet Bandwidth

G. Bandwidth Upgrade Strategies

H. Video Delivery Via FTTH

IV. Reported Drivers for FTTH

A. Current Competitive Drivers

B. Current Consumer Drivers

C. Future Competitive Drivers

D. Future Consumer Drivers

E. Drivers by Segment

1. Telephone Industry

2. Home Developers

3. Municipalities

F. The Importance of Visionaries/Missionaries

V. Current Status of FTTH

A. FTTH Market Size and Past Growth Methodologies

B. FTTH Market Size – Homes Passed and Connected

C. FTTH Pre-Service Status – Projects in Feasibility and Construction

D. FTTH Growth Versus Historic Copper and Coax Rates

E. Number of FTTH Communities

F. Size of FTTH Projects

G. Locations of Current Deployments

H. Top States for FTTH Activity

I. List of US Optical Fiber Communities Currently Serving Customers

VI. Vendor Market Share

A. Numerical Market Share

B. Description of Front Line Vendors

VII. Construction Characteristics of FTTH Deployments

A. Overbuilds Versus Greenfields

B. FTTH Deployments by Type of Organization Deploying

C. FTTH Architectures Used-Extent PON Versus Point-to-Point

D. FTTH Protocols Used-Extent ATM Versus Ethernet

E. FTTH Standards Used-Extent BPON, GPON, EPON, ESON, Etc.

F. Video Type Used-Extent RF Versus IP

G. IP Video Issues – Carrying Rights

H. Video Transport – Satellite Head-end Versus IP Transport

I. Sources for Video Programming

J. FTTH Internet Speeds Offered

K. Construction Methods Used-Aerial Versus Underground

L. Drop Strategies Used – Pre-Service, Pre-Conduit, No Pre-Service

M. Outside Plant Construction Methods and Equipment Used

1. Aerial Line Installation

2. Roadbed/MCS Line Installation

3. Existing Service Line Installation

4. Underground Line Installation

5. Outdoor Enclosures

N. Shadow Conduit Usage by Non-FTTH Greenfields

O. Inside Networking Issues

P. Closed/Retail Versus Open/Wholesale FTTH Deployments

Q. Importance of Fiber-to-the-Business in Conjunction with FTTH

VIII. Costs Related To FTTH Deployments

A. Overall Costs of FTTH

B. Cost Breakdowns for FTTH

IX. FTTH Services and Marketing

A. Percent Triple Play

B. Percent Passed by Voice, Video, Data

C. Overall Take-Rates for FTTH

D. Take-Rates by Services

E. Reasons for FTTH Take-Rate Variances

F. Best Practices for FTTH Consumer Marketing

G. Futuristic FTTH Applications

H. Survey: Consumer Interest in Futuristic FTTH Applications

I. Value of a FTTH Customer

X. Population DENSITY MARKET SEGMENTS

A. Overview-Percent of FTTH Deployed by Market Type

B. Description of the Markets by Population Density

1. Major Metro Area

2. Secondary Metro Areas/Smaller Communities

3. Truly Rural

XI. Provider Type Market Segments

A. Overview - Percent of FTTH Deployed by Provider Type

B. Major Telephone Companies (RBOCs and Sprint)

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for Major Telephone Companies?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for Major Telephone Companies?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current Major Telephone Company FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among Major Telephone Company?

C. Municipalities

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for Municipalities?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for Municipalities?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current Municipality FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among Municipalities?

D. Public Utility Districts/Electric Cooperatives

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for PUDs/Coops?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for PUDs/Coops?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current PUD/Coop FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among PUDs/Coops?

E. Independent Telephone Companies

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for ILECs?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for ILECs?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current ILEC FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among ILECs?

F. CLECs/Overbuilders

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for CLEC/Overbuilders?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for CLEC/Overbuilders?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current CLEC/Overbuilder FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among CLEC/Overbuilders?

G. New Home Developers

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for New Home Developers?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for New Home Developers?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current New Home Developer FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among New Home Developers?

H. MSO/Cable Companies

1. How Large is the Total FTTH Opportunity for MSO/Cable Companies?

2. What is the Current Status of FTTH for MSO/Cable Companies?

3. What are the Characteristics of Current MSO/Cable FTTH Deployments?

4. What are the Prospects for Future FTTH Deployment among MSO/Cable Companies?

I. First US “FTTH to FTTH” Competition

XII. Emerging Trends and Innovations That Will Shape the FTTH Industry

A. There will be Rapid Migration to Robust FTTH Solutions and Better Dynamic Bandwidth Allocation

B. There is a Quiet Race Toward True Convergence

C. New Inside Networking Solutions are Quickly Developing

XIII. Overall North American FTTH Forecasts And Five-year Forecasts By Segments

A. Historic FTTH Data Tables by Segments/2001-2004

B. FTTH Forecast Model Methodology

C. The Detailed Homes Passed Forecast

1. Greenfields

2. Overbuilds

3. Overall FTTH Homes Passed Forecast

D. Detailed Homes Connected Forecast

E. FTTH Total Market Investment Forecast

F. Forecasts of FTTH Architectures

XIv. The State Of FTTH and Its Effect On Society

A. Demographics of FTTH Communities

B. Reported Effects of FTTH on Economic Development

C. Reported Effects of FTTH on Education

D. Reported Effects of FTTH on Broadband Competition

E. Effects of FTTH on Home Values

F. FTTH Effect on the Overall Economy

XV. International FTTH Deployments

A. Overview

B. Current Leading FTTH Countries

C. Countries to Watch

D. Known FTTH International Providers By Country